"You Mean Dewey DIDN'T Beat Truman?"

January 2001

"We are all interested in the future for that is where you and I will spend the rest of our lives...whether we want to or not." -- TV psychic Criswell

The new millennium makes many of us think about time and peek into our cracked crystal balls to guess at what the future holds. But that's nothing new, the past century has been full of aspiring Nostradami whose future forecasts have completely missed the bulls-eye and gotten stuck in the wood paneling above the beer sign in the Prediction Pub.

SCIENCE

Every major invention this century, from telephones to the latest Ron Popeil gadget, was once considered impossible or useless. (OK, so maybe not everyone wants to scramble an egg inside its shell. But if you wanted to, American ingenuity has brought us the technology.)

TV caused a lot of talk in its early years. Movie exec Darryl F. Zanuck said, "People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night," which would explain why they're now made of plastic.

In 1939, RCA's CEO said, "television drama of high caliber...will materially raise the level of dramatic taste of the nation." Hmm, four "Star Trek" series, "Party of Five," and several Very Special Episodes of "Full House" later, nothing seems to have changed. I wonder what happened.

AT&T rejected a free offer to get into the cell phone business in 1984, believing there was no real market. There are over 20 million cell phones in use today. Sounds a bit like passing on the office lottery pool the day before it hits.

Orville and Wilbur Wright's father advised his sons, "Flying is reserved for angels." I'm fairly sure when angels fly they have much better food.

SOCIETY

These are always hard to predict. That hasn't stopped a bunch of people from betting it all on the long-shot horse.

Labor leader TV Powderly stated "There will be no very-poor or very-rich (by 1993)." Which was the very year Bill Gates made his first $1 bajillion.

President Grover Cleveland once said, "Sensible women...do not want to vote." These days, looking at the latest political harvest, sensible men don't want to vote either.

Author HG Wells wrote in 1914 that World War I was, "not just another war -- it is the last war!" Henry Ford agreed in 1928, saying people were "becoming too intelligent to make another big war." Remember the These Days Theorem on Combat: One should never underestimate man's desire to blow something up.

"Man Machines and Tomorrow" by MW Thring (1973) states by 2000, "animal meat will be so uneconomical to produce...it will be served in small quantities, like a garnish." Then again, looking at that McValue Combo meal I just bought, he's not that far off.

THE END

For thousands of years, people have been absolutely sure when the Last Round Up will happen, and this century is no exception.

Members of the Heaven's Gate cult were sure the End was coming in 1996. That was, after all, the year the New Kids on the Block broke up. Maybe they just couldn't see a world without Donnie Walberg's sexy-cool dance moves.

Profit prophets grabbed their "End is Near" sandwich boards in fear of last year's "Y2K" problem (or "Millennium Bug" -- dumb name since it happened a year before the millennium). Everything from disappearing bank accounts to airplanes falling out of the sky was expected to mark the end of civilization. January 1 came -- no crashes, riots, or economic collapse. Too bad about the riots, though, I had my eyes on a new big screen TV in the store window down the street.

?

So what does all this mean? It means no one knows for sure what's going to happen. Each one of us in some small way helps direct the future. How one splashes paint in his little section of the future's big blank canvas determines if we collectively paint a "Mona Lisa" or a "Dogs Playing Poker."

(Sources: "Bad Predictions" by Laura Lee, "Bartlett's Book of Quotations")

LEGAL STUFF: All content copyright © 1996-2006 Daniel O'Leary. All rights reserved. No unauthorized duplication, publication, or distribution.

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He has previously written online editorials to NJ-shout.com (RIP), Great Society.org, and Songsource.com, among others. He has also been featured in ShoreGuide and AbsoluteWrite.com.

Dan is a current member of the NetWits humorist's collective.

Since his early twenties, Dan's writings have also been prominently featured on the refrigerator in his parents' home. "Sure, they make no sense," Mrs. O'Leary comments, "but we're proud of him -- no matter what everyone else says."